So Labour lives to fight another day, at least in England and Wales. While they may have defied many expectations by avoiding significant losses in English council elections and they remain on course for a win in London, of more interest is how the Labour leadership have interpreted the results.
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell claimed that despite being the first Opposition to lose council seats in thirty years, the result was positive because of the increase in their share of the vote, cutting The Tories lead compared to the 2015 General Election, with a 4% swing. But does this analysis, and indeed the tactic of gradually increasing vote share in local elections, add up?
Analysis by the LSE ahead of the election identified a pattern in National Equivalent Vote Share (NEVS) and its impact on General Election results; Oppositions needs an average lead of around 14% during the local election cycle for it to triumph at the subsequent General Election. The two times this has occurred, 1993-1996 and 2006-09, were followed in 1997 and 2010 by the election of a new government. By contrast, for the period 2011-2014 the average lead was 2.2%.
Labour’s ambition should be to seek a 14% lead over the 2016-19 local election cycle. Based on today’s estimated 4% swing, giving Labour a lead of 1% lead over the Conservatives, Labour would need to secure massive gains – in the region of a 20% lead – in the overall vote share if they are to reach an average lead of 14% over the period.
Achieving large leads over the Government relies on a strong message, a popular leader, excellent ground organisation and the unpopularity of incumbents. Miliband’s Labour achieved its local election high water mark following the 2012 omnishambles Budget. Yet, against a favourable backdrop of another Budget unraveling, Conservative infighting over the EU referendum, schools reform and changes to tax credits, Labour has failed to make significant gains.
Having been unable to take advantage of the Government’s troubles, it suggests Labour requires significant improvements those other areas; the Government is unlikely to remain this unpopular until 2020. Only eight months since electing a new leader progress has been understandably limited; yet the result only emphasizes the size of the task ahead, especially as dreams of a fightback in Scotland have been dashed.
Pundits and critics alike – using a range of different measures – have argued Labour had a poor election night. Yet even on its own terms Labour is a long way short of where it needs to be if it is to have any chance of winning in 2020.
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