Labour has finally published one its two reports into what went wrong at the 2015 election, Learning the Lessons from Defeat. They will join the canon of the Labour post-mortem which, in the ongoing disagreements between left and right in the party, shows no signs of abating. Yet its far from clear that this latest report understands the most important lesson of all, which can actually be learned not from Labour’s recent defeats, but the Tories.
For those outside the Labour Party – and indeed, many within it – this year’s annual conference was a strange affair. Whether or not Jeremy Corbyn really reflects a ‘new politics’ or a ‘political earthquake’ at the fourth attempt (following Nick Clegg, UKIP and the SNP), Labour is seemingly taking a different approach in terms of policy, tactics and strategy. Here are five observations and thoughts on what this actually means and where it might be heading:
1. Labour has more to say about the past – and its past mistakes – than it does about the future. Labour’s new direction is largely defined by a rejection of its own past and the mistakes New Labour is perceived to have made, including its economic policies, liberal interventionism and the historical approach to politics in the Middle East. It is also shaped by its opposition to austerity and the Government’s approach to cutting the deficit, which is seen as unfair. Understanding history is important in shaping future policy to avoid repeating mistakes, but it requires an application of the lessons learned to the realities of the future.
With his victory seemingly inevitable speculation is turning to what happens next for a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party. The obvious comparison has been 1983, Michael Foot and the SDP split. A more prosaic outcome is more likely as Corbyn’s mandate is slowly eroded and his supporters struggle with his transition from poacher to gamekeeper.
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On one side New Labour ‘grandees’ warn of the risks posed by Jeremy Corbyn being elected party leader, while his supporters counter that what matters is standing up for what your believe rather than power for powers sake. At the centre of this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of a political party; to win power and implement its policies in pursuit of its philosophical goals.
A political party must also build and motivate a network of activists who raise its funds, spread its message and get out its vote during elections. Corbyn’s campaign has excelled at this aspect and although there are those that believe he can win an election from the left, it appears to have attracted significant support from those that don’t care if he can’t win an election, but will vote for him because they believe in what he stands for.
To understand why this is happening it is instructive to compare ‘Corbyn-mania’ with other recent political surges; Clegg-mania, the SNP tsunami and the UKIP peoples army, as they all have similar features. Each represent moments when a politician appears to step outside of their hermetically sealed bubble and speak to the public, rather than at them, in a language they understand, about the issues they care about, rather than the ones they should. In short, they appear authentic and in-tune with popular opinion.
Critics of the European Union and its democratic deficit will see the latest developments in Greece as an opportunity – those on the left as a means to reject technocrat imposed austerity; those on the right of exposing its over-reach and the folly of a currency union without a fiscal.
The proposed referendum – assuming its call doesn’t provoke a last-minute return to the negotiating table – will enable the Greek people to directly influence, for the first time, the fundamental choice between ‘Grexit’ and continued austerity. But there is a bigger question at play, which is reflected in the crises posed by Brexit, the migrant crisis and our response to terrorism; can the EU operate successfully with this increased democratic accountability.
First, the good news for Labour. Only a third of the electorate voted for the Conservative government. A majority of people did not and there has been no dramatic shift to the right; a swing in 2020 of 4% would probably give Labour victory. All is certainly not lost.
Now the bad news; Labour is being assailed electorally on all sides, many of the assumptions made in the wake of 2010 have proven false, there is no clear strategy for electoral success, and it has little time to counter the Conservatives, who will move quickly to press their new parliamentary advantage.
A friend of mine is one of several people working in a fashionable barbers in Shoreditch, offering the latest hipster cut and beard trim for the best part of £50. Both he and his colleagues are part of the Coalition’s success story that has seen two million private sector jobs created since 2010, of which approximately 60% are businesses with a single employee.
Another friend was until recently, also part of a one-person business, employed full-time at a product design agency. In fact, the whole work force was employed in this way despite being permanent employees in all but name. They received not a salary – and therefore no additional benefits such as holiday pay – but payment for the work their business completed.
Economists and policy makers have been confused; they want to see these ‘SME’s grow but can’t work out why they don’t take on additional employees. But that may misunderstand their purpose; these single person businesses have been created to avoid tax.
If you believe the opinion polls of recent months, Labour is simultaneously collapsing, facing a wipe-out in Scotland and heading for a Commons majority. Their value then, is often in aggregate, average and long-term trends – such as ‘polls of polls’ – but that doesn’t stop people panicking; Westminster went into meltdown in August on the basis of a single outlying opinion poll on support for Scottish independence.
The polls are contributing to discontent on the backbenches of the Conservative and Labour parties who are both looking unlikely to develop a commanding lead to carry into the election. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the party with the most dramatic fall in the polls – the Lib Dems – appear the most united.
What is driving this concern amongst Conservative MPs is UKIP; amongst Labour MPs it is the Greens, SNP and UKIP. According to the polls, all three smaller parties look set to take votes that the two bigger parties had been banking on. For the Tories, it’s the right wing euro sceptics. For Labour, its left wing voters moving to the SNP, the Greens (particularly those that may have voted for the Lib Dems in the past) and some ‘working class’ voters to UKIP.
During my time at university a friend stood for election as President of our student’s union, eventually sweeping to victory with more than half of the vote share. A resounding victory you may think, but in reality it was anything but; less than 3% of students bothered to cast their vote.
Why was ‘turnout’ (the number of the electorate choosing to vote) so low? My own view was that students believed it did not matter; discounted beer and sports team pub crawls would continue no matter who was president. Simply put, nothing much was expected to change whatever the result. Student democracy it seems, is in an even more parlous condition than that of the UK.
Similar arguments have been put forward to explain the dramatic fall in turnout at Westminster elections. Apathy, a loss of trust, political triangulation, the battle for the centre ground, demographic change, over-centralisation and the rise of valance issues have all been cited as causes of the crisis of turnout in the UK.
Scotland is expected however, to buck the recent trend and to do so dramatically, proving that politics still has the power to capture the popular imagination. Turnout is predicted to be over 80%, the highest in any UK election since 1955. It will dramatically exceed the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election (50%) and the 2010 General Election (65%) – despite that being closely contested and in the middle of the biggest financial crisis for a generation. It also far exceeds turnout for the referendum on electoral reform in 2011 (42%) and the total turnout for Police and Crime and Commissioner elections (15%).
The summer has seen Ed Miliband and his front bench team come in for criticism from members of their own party, the latest skirmish in the struggle over the future direction and election strategy of the Labour Party. But despite the economic recovery taking hold there is increasing evidence that Miliband’s analysis – that without a new economic model we face an unprecedented crisis of living standards – looks more perceptive than ever.
As Parliament returned from its summer recess two topics have been high on the Westminster agenda; low pay and welfare reform. The Resolution Foundation’s report on low pay suggests the nascent economic recovery is creating a two-tier workforce of those in insecure low paid work and those in secure, managerial or professional employment. Meanwhile, the Department for Work and Pensions to come under continued scrutiny over its implementation of Universal Credit.
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