The Scottish disaster of May 2015 will be long remembered by the Labour Party, which saw a permanent realigning of the political landscape against it. Yet the seeds of that defeat were already sown by the Scottish Independence campaign the previous year. With the EU referendum now set for 23 June 2016 the Conservatives may too be sowing the seeds of disaster.
There are numerous parallels between the Scottish Independence and Brexit referenda, and how they threaten to split a ruling party from a significant portion of its electoral base. The true impact, however, wasn’t felt until months later; despite winning the referendum Labour lost the argument; once the party of social democracy in Scotland it was wiped out electorally, losing all but one of its forty-one seats.
The problem was that Labour was perceived as taking its voters for granted (being a metropolitan elite running Scotland from Westminster), failing to reflect their voters political beliefs (proposing austerity-lite rather than anti-austerity) and being on the wrong side of the emotional debate (specifically, the same side as the toxic Tories).
The Conservative leadership’s and the majority of its MPs are seen as much more ‘metropolitan’ and socially liberal than party members. The leadership intends to argue alongside tribal enemies for a position its grassroots vehemently opposes, being labelled as ‘project fear’. It will also be in direct opposition to its supporters during a highly emotive and ‘once-in-a-generation’ referendum that is concerned primarily with identity politics, rather than the technical detail of what the alternative actually looks like. It all sounds strangely familiar.
In the aftermath of the Scottish referendum it had been assumed that those who had voted Labour in the past but backed independence would return to the Labour fold in May 2015. Yet the referendum opened a much wider debate than merely the constitutional relationship of Scotland within the UK. The debate became about what Scotland was and who it was for; the SNP proclaimed it a northern European social democratic bulwark against the more free market and liberal tendencies of England, a socially responsible and compassionate state in the mould of Scandinavia that Scots could be proud of.
The EU referendum also opens a similar debate that will lean heavily on our national myth of noble old Blighty against the world (1939-1945) and that Britain has always been more than geographically separate to mainland Europe and its internecine politics, wars and revolutions. In short, we are better forging our own internationalist path and leaving those over there to their problems as we did throughout the glory days of Empire.
Or, are we an outward looking, inclusive and multicultural society that wants to play a multilateral role in fighting the good causes in the world and making it a better place, recognising our relative prosperity and providing support and understanding to those less fortunate than ourselves, taking the long-view of building a more stable world, built on more than just trade?
If the ‘in campaign’ wins then a majority of Conservative members, and perhaps many Conservative voters, will feel let down by the party and may feel the emotional connection has been lost. How can you vote for a party that disagrees with you on the fundamental issue of who we are and what Britain is?
However, what really did for Labour was the existence of an articulate, successful and tried and tested alternative in the shape of the SNP. The Conservatives do not face such a prospect and the only thing that comes close – UKIP – has much work to do if it is to ever be a real alternative to the Conservatives. There is also a much longer time to forgive and forget before the next general election.
Yet the Conservative grassroots and MPs sympathetic to their cause may have their revenge in other ways. MPs can continue to be a thorn in the side of the Government from the backbenches. The grassroots can also vote for a party leader that shares their deepest held beliefs, even if they know it is electorally unpopular, not the ‘sensible’ choice and goes against the wishes of most of their MPs. That too, also sounds strangely familiar.
the P in Politics 